IZA Journal of Development and Migration

Abstract This article seeks to explain the contradiction between the promises of welfare gains derived from the economic models recommending the removal of immigration restrictions and the realities experienced by countries attempting to apply restrictions to immigration flows. A formal model is built in which the strategic reaction of countries considers not only the benefits derived from migration but also the (economic and non-economic) costs that migration can generate in the host country. Strategic reactions drive what may be called the “paradox of adverse interest”: the fewer potential gains associated with liberalization of migration, the easier it becomes for nations to reach an unrestrictive agreement. The existence of two asymmetries (between the bargaining power of receiving and sending countries, and between the private nature of most of migration’s benefits and the social nature of its main costs) can hinder the agreement when the countries involved exhibit a high wage differential. Results suggest that permissive international agreements on migration are easier to reach in regional contexts, among countries with proximate economic conditions and levels of income.

José Antonio Alonso

Francisco Javier Santos Arteaga

International migratory agreements: the paradox of adverse interest

国际移民协议：利益冲突的悖论

Abstract This article proposes a strategy to identify Syrian refugees in Turkey’s Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS). Even though Turkey’s HLFS contains information on the migrants’ year of arrival to Turkey, it does not provide details on their nationalities. This unfortunate feature mixes Syrian refugees with the standard flow of migration who arrived to Turkey during the Syrian war. I propose to eliminate the standard flow of migrants arrived between 2011 and 2017 by matching them (based on their characteristics) with the migrants arrived in the 2004–2010 period. This method obtains, indirectly, nonstandard migration, i.e., Syrian refugees. The results show that the age distribution of the nonstandard migrants identified matches the age distribution of Syrian refugees as officially released by the Turkish government. At last, I propose a post-stratification adjustment of the survey weights to find the actual geographical distribution of Syrian refugees in Turkey.

Luis Pinedo-Caro

Identifying Syrian refugees in Turkish microdata

识别土耳其微观数据中的叙利亚难民

Abstract This article sheds light on the dynamics of the Argentine labor market, using quarterly data from the Argentine Labor Force Survey for the period 2003Q3 to 2020Q1. We examine quarterly transition rates in a four-state model with formal employment, informal employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation. We compute the contribution of each transition rate to fluctuations in unemployment and informality rates. We identify five stylized facts: (i) Nearly 40% of the fluctuations in the unemployment rate involves unemployment ins and outs from/to informal jobs. (ii) More than 40% of the fluctuations in informality rate are driven by the variance of the formalization rate (transition from informal to formal employment). (iii) Non-participation matters for the understanding of unemployment volatility but also for the comprehension of the volatility on informality. (iv) Regarding gender differences: transition involving non-participation matters more in the variance of female unemployment and informality rates than for their male counterparts. (v) The informal sector plays an important role as a stepping stone to formal jobs for both men and women. Our article provides empirical targets to discipline theoretical modeling of labor market dynamics with a sizeable shadow economy.

Julien Albertini

Arthur Poirier

Thepthida Sopraseuth

Informal work along the business cycle: evidence from Argentina

商业周期中的非正式工作：来自阿根廷的证据

Abstract International labor mobility is a key factor for a well-functioning labor market. Although educational attainment is known to affect regional labor mobility within a country, evidence of a relationship between schooling and international labor mobility is limited, particularly in developing countries. This study uses the across-cohort variation in the exposure to the 1988 free secondary education reform in the Philippines to examine the impact of years of education on the propensity of working abroad. The results suggest that free secondary education increased the years of education for men. Moreover, the additional years of education reduced the likelihood of working abroad by 3.2% points on average. However, an extra year of female education was not associated with the probability of working abroad. These results indicate that a program for improving access to secondary education may affect international labor mobility for men even after a few decades. It underscores the importance of considering the possible labor market consequences when designing the education reform in developing countries.

Yoko Sakai

Kazuya Masuda

Secondary education and international labor mobility: evidence from the natural experiment in the Philippines

中等教育和国际劳动力流动：来自菲律宾自然实验的证据

Abstract Large international earnings differentials negatively impact human capital investments in migrant-origin countries. We find that three Central Asian migrant-sending countries—the Kyrgyz Republic, the Republic of Tajikistan, and the Republic of Uzbekistan—are facing a forsaken schooling phenomenon. Once completing their compulsory schooling, young people in these countries are forsaking additional schooling because of opportunities to migrate to high-paying low-skilled jobs in the Russian Federation. The countries face a loss in human capital formation.

Ilhom Abdulloev

Gil S. Epstein

Ira N. Gang

Migration and Forsaken Schooling in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦的移民与失学问题

Abstract We contribute to the literature by exploring the variation in the trade-creating effect of migration networks across historical migrants and recent migrants by applying a micro-founded gravity model of trade. Both the stock of historical migrants and recent migrants variables are constructed by merging Canadian Census data with the migration data available in Statistics Canada. We address the endogeneity issue by applying IV estimators including two-step feasible GMM and PPML with IV and fixed effects by utilizing the imputed annual migration flow, the historical stock, and recent stock of migrants as instrumental variables proposed by Peri and Requena (2010). Taking Canadian geographical features into account, this study also applies carefully measured gravity variables. We control for the time-varying, exporter-year fixed effects, and importer-year fixed effects in a panel estimation. Estimated results show that annual migration, recent provincial stock of migrants, and historical stock of migrants significantly increase Canadian interprovincial trade. This impact is stronger for the stock of historical migrants relative to the stock of recent migrants and annual migration flow. Sub-sample analysis shows that both recent and historical migration consistently increase interprovincial service trade, only but not interprovincial goods trade. A greater combination of English and French-speaking provinces-pair significantly increases interprovincial trade. Regional trade agreements significantly impact the interprovincial trade of Canada. Our estimated results are robust to different estimation methods and alternative measures for the migrants’ stock and flow variables.

Nusrate Aziz

Ahmed Aziz

Recent vs Historical Migrants: A Study on the Canadian Provincial Trade-Migration Nexus

近期与历史移民：加拿大省际贸易-移民关系研究

Abstract The employment structure of India's formal manufacturing sector has undergone substantial changes since the early 2000s with a steep rise in the use of contract workers in place of directly hired workers. Much of the existing literature has attributed the widespread use of contract labour to India's rigid employment protection legislation. The resulting informalisation of the workforce in the organised sector raises concerns about the sustainability of employment growth. Using a 14-year plant-level panel data from the Annual Survey of Industries, we find that in addition to labour market rigidities and the existence of a wage differential between contract and directly hired workers, plants in the organised manufacturing sector have another important incentive to hire contract workers. Plants appear to be using contract workers to their strategic advantage against the directly hired workers to keep their bargaining power and wage demand in check. Importantly, the strength of this bargaining channel varies across plants depending on their capital intensity of production, size and existing contract worker intensity.

Radhicka Kapoor

P. P. Krishnapriya

Informalization of the formal sector: Evidence from India's manufacturing industries

正式部门的非正式化：来自印度制造业的证据

Abstract During a global shock two forces act upon international remittances in opposite directions: income losses among migrants may reduce their ability to send remittances and, at the same time, migrants’ concern for their family's wellbeing may prompt them to send more remittances back home. Which of these drivers prevail is an empirical matter. We assemble quarterly data at the subnational level in Mexico to study the behavior of remittances during the Covid-19 pandemic. We estimate elasticities of remittances with respect to employment conditions at both origin and destination places of Mexican migrants. Our results show that destination country conditions have been the main driver of remittances to Mexico, whereas origin country conditions had no discernible effect on remittances during the pandemic. We also show that contractions in consumption in Mexico are associated with reductions in remittances. We conclude that risk-coping via remittances provides limited protection during global crises.

Christian Ambrosius

Raymundo M. Campos-Vázquez

Gerardo Esquivel

Migrant Remittances During a Global Shock: Evidence From the COVID-19 Pandemic in Mexico

全球冲击下的移民汇款：来自墨西哥新冠疫情的证据

Abstract We study gender differences in changes in labor market dynamics before the pandemic and during the COVID-19 pandemic in four Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries: Brazil, Chile, Dominican Republic, and Mexico. Specifically, we look at differences in labor market states and at differences in the transitions of workers across labor market states. To identify the pandemic's impact, we compare labor market stocks and labor market flows for a number of balanced panels of workers during the pandemic and before the pandemic. We find that the pandemic has negatively affected employment and labor market participation of both men and women, but that the effect is significantly stronger for women, magnifying the already large gender gaps observed in LAC countries. The main channel generating this stronger impact is the increase in child care work performed by women with school-age children.

Mariana Viollaz

Mauricio Salazar-Saenz

Luca Flabbi

Monserrat Bustelo

Mariano Bosch

The COVID-19 Pandemic in Latin American and Caribbean countries: Gender Differentials in Labor Market Dynamics

拉丁美洲和加勒比国家的新冠疫情：劳动力市场中性别差异的动态变化

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has not only led to a health crisis, but also to economic and labor market crises. In an effort to avert the public health threat, countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) initially put in place some of the world's most stringent government responses. This paper explores how labor market outcomes for MENA workers have evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper uses the Economic Research Forum (ERF) COVID-19 MENA Monitor (CMM) phone surveys in Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, and Tunisia, with waves spanning November 2020 to August 2021. Analyses examine outcomes of employment, unemployment, and labor force participation, along with hours of work and hourly wages. Results show differences in the evolution of pandemic-era labor markets by workers’ gender, age, and education, along with their February 2020 labor market status and industry, as well as their pre-pandemic income. Employment rates have largely recovered and hours of work generally increased. Inequality in wages was initially exacerbated by the pandemic, but there has been at least some recovery on this margin as well.

Caroline Krafft

Ragui Assaad

Mohamed Ali Marouani

Ruby Cheung

Ava LaPlante

Are labor markets in the Middle East and North Africa recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic?

中东和北非的劳动力市场是否正在从新冠疫情中复苏？

ISSN	2520-1786
h-index	26

Publication Information	Publisher: Laborwide，Publishing cycle: ，Journal Type: journal，Open Access Journals: No
Basic data	Year of publication: 2018，Proportion of original research papers: 0.00%，Self Citation Rate:N.A.， Gold OA Rate: 0.00%
Average review cycle	网友分享经验：10 Weeks

IZA Journal of Development and Migration

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