现代财经－天津财经大学学报

Based on an endogenous growth theory model,taking Wuhan City Circle for example,using the data from 2007-2010 and the method of SYS-GMM,the paper empirically examined the spatial spillover effect of overall public expenditure and all kinds of public expenditure on regional economic growth.The results show that firstly,spatial spillover effect of public expenditure does exit,overall public expenditure and maintaining expenditure have negative effect rather social expenditure and economical expenditure have positive effect.Secondly,IFA rate,IEVC rate,AFD rate and Saving rate have notably effect on regional economy.

Wang Bao-shun

Xiandai caijing

Public Expenditure,Spatial Spillover and Regional Economic Growth: Taking Wuhan City Circle for Example

公共支出、空间溢出与区域经济增长：以武汉城市圈为例

Fan Dong-jun

On the Sustainable Effect of Outflow of Rural Labor Force on Grain Production——An Analysis based on Provincial Panel Data in Different Areas

农村劳动力外流对粮食生产的可持续影响——基于不同地区省级面板数据的分析

The existing literatures of effectiveness of financial analyst's earnings forecast are theoretical,and empirical research is relatively lacking,especially in China.In this paper,based on the redefinition of existed literatures,we redefine the effectiveness of financial analyst's earnings forecast,and establish a basic framework of research.On this basis,I propose the two possible ways based on fundamental analysis.The establishment of sustainable difference of earnings and the reasonability of earning's pricing.The empirical study shows that,to some extent,analysts can distinguish the sustainable difference of earnings.And it is more reasonable for pricing than the investors.Therefore,to a degree,financial analyst's earning forecast is effective.

Ji Kan

A Study on the Effectiveness of Financial Analyst's Earnings Forecast: based on Theoretical Analysis and Modeling

基于理论分析与建模的财务分析师盈利预测有效性研究

Shadow banking through housing bubble leads to systemic financial risk.It includes credit,collateral channel,asset substitution and risk contagion.Empirical study shows shadow banking significantly and positively affected housing prices in the long term.Through introducing shadow banking we construct systemic financial stress index to measure systemic financial risk.SVR model indicates that housing bubble caused systemic financial risk after considering related endogenous variables.Therefore,the regulation of shadow banking must be strengthened,over-enlarged credit must be ceased,credit supervision must be innovated,financial safety net should be constructed while other regulations of real estate should be performed effectively.

Zhang Bao-li

Shadow Banking and Housing Bubble:The Source of Systemic Financial Risk

影子银行与房地产泡沫：系统性金融风险的根源

Using 1997-2013 transaction data from Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange,this paper studies the advertising effect of limit-up and over-attention underperformance from the perspective of investors' concern.The empirical study shows that there is an advertising effect for limitup and limit-up stock can draw investors' attention.The more frequent limit-up is,the more attention investors pay.Taking into consideration heterogeneous beliefs and stock liquidity,we find that limit-up stocks still have cumulative abnormal return which justifies the hypothesis of over-attention underperformance.

Wang Yan-min

The Study on Advertising Effect of Limit-up and Over-attention Underperformance

涨停与过度关注下的业绩不佳广告效应研究

Management of the new generation employees has become the focus of the society,and the new generation employees frequent job hopping phenomenon has caught the attention of enterprise managers,government regulators,scholars and other relevant personnel.The research treats247 new generation employees as samples,and tries to explore the relationship between psychological contract breach and turnover intention of the new generation employees through the hierarchical regression analysis and other methods.The study found that psychological contract breach has a significant positive impact on turnover intention.Besides,organizational identification has an significant intermediation between psychological contract breach and turnover intention.Furthermore,leader-member exchange has a negative moderation effect on the correlation between psychological contract breach and organizational identification.

Qian Shi-ru

XU Zi-qiang

Wang Ling-qiao

Study on the Relationship between Psychological Contract Breach and Turnover Intention among the New Generation Employees

新生代员工心理契约违背与离职意向关系研究

From on the new normal perspective,this paper establishes a dynamic game model which contains three departments.Combining micro view with macro mechanism,it analyzes the internal relations of financial innovation,technological innovation and economic growth,putting forward the related conclusion.Then it uses ARDL-ECM boundary effect test model empirically testing the conclusions with the data of 1952~2013years.The results show:separate financial innovation produces inhibitory effect on economic growth,and correlated technology innovation prornotes economy significantly,but less than the separate role of technology innovation;Knowledge and innovation affect economic growth insignificantly in short-term,so to play the externality.It needs to accumulate to get the threshold.

LI Cong-we

Financial Innovation,Technological Innovation and Economic Growth from the New Normal Perspective

新常态视角下的金融创新、技术创新与经济增长

As the tool of commercial banks' regulatory arbitrage,the operating pattern of financial products is increasingly diversified and complex.The paper studies the incentive and specific pattern of regulatory arbitrage using the method of accounting entries and process analysis.The research shows that our financial market is still developing and its interest rate liberalization needs reforming.The decentralization of regulatory mechanism is a deep-rooted reason.In regard to these problems,the paper advances some policy suggestions.

Wang Xiao-qia

A Study on the Regulatory Arbitrage of Bank Financial Products and Related Regulation

银行金融产品监管套利及相关监管研究

This study examines the difference in investment style and performance between individual and team-managed mutual funds and the impact of internal mode of the team on investment style and performance using the data of 1030 Chinese mutual funds with a ten-year span from 2003 to 2012.The results suggest no significant difference between individual and team-managed funds in terms of Sharpe ratio,timing and selectivity skill,which is consistent with classical decision-making theory.Strong evidence shows that team-managed stock and hybrid funds have lower risk than individual-managed funds,which is consistent with diversification theory.Team size and team tenure reduce timing skill of hybrid funds.Team tenure brings higher Sharpe ratio to stock funds with higher risk,but lower risk to bond funds,implying accentuation of group tendency.

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现代财经－天津财经大学学报

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